Saturday, March 15, 2008
WW Boys: Team of the Year, season wrap-up
We ended up with a total of two winless teams in the state on the boys' side. First, some thoughts from my previous boys WW post, on February 21. With my new comments in bold, I said then:
With one regular-season game left against a New Haven team that's riding a 6-game losing streak of its own, #3 Adams Central could parlay its near-miss against a not-bad South Adams team last weekend into its first win of the season.
(It didn't.)
It'd better come this weekend for the Jets, because they drew 20-0 Bluffton in the first round of the sectional. Before you think, "Uh-oh – mismatch of the century," keep in mind that Bluffton beat the Jets by only 13 earlier in the season.
(And Bluffton beat the Jets by 23 in the sectional … and then saw its undefeated season come to an end in the sectional championship game. Adams Central wore them out!)
#2 Whiting has had four of its 19 losses to date by less than 10 points, but when they've been uncompetitive, they've really been uncompetitive: five of their other losses have been by 40 or more. The Oilers have one game left as well, tonight against a 12-7 Hammond Clark squad that already beat them by 34 back around Thanksgiving.
(A little better showing the second time around against Hammond Clark, as Whiting lost by only 18.)
Whiting will face the winner of 16-4 Morgan Township and 11-9 Kouts in the bye game of the Kouts Sectional next Friday night.
(… and lost to Morgan Township by 35.)
The best opportunity, though, for a winless team to break their skid this weekend – and maybe gain some momentum heading into sectional – is on Saturday night (weather permitting), as #1 Shoals hits the road to face a 3-win New Harmony team that is only one spot above the Jug Rox in the Sagarin ratings.
(Then I talked about all of the common opponents they shared, and it appeared that Shoals had the edge on New Harmony on that basis alone.)
Add it all up, and you've got to hope if you're Shoals that the ice storm that walloped far southwest Indiana this week doesn't wreak havoc with the scheduling of the game.
(They played the game, and Shoals - full disclosure: Winless Watch's alma mater – defeated New Harmony 50-42 to get off the Winless Watch list for the season. Congratulations to the Jug Rox!)
(Oh – Shoals' sectional draw didn't go much better than Adams Central's; they drew 18-2 North Daviess in the opener on Tuesday night.)
(Irrelevant, since they already scored a win, but the Jug Rox showed some improvement since their 49-point loss to the Cougars in November, losing to the Class A #1 team by only 34 the second time around. North Daviess then lost its next game to Barr-Reeve – again, Shoals wore them out!)
******
The Jug Rox victory on February 23 paves the way for a new Winless Watch #1, who will also score the Winless Watch Team of the Year trophy. The tale of the tape between Whiting and Adams Central:
Records: Whiting 0-21, Adams Central 0-20
Average margin of defeat: Whiting 25.7 ppg, Adams Central 15.6 ppg
Worst margin of defeat: Whiting 49 (lost 88-39 to Hammond Noll), Adams Central 33 (lost 78-45 to Parkway, Ohio)
Number of defeats under 10 points: Whiting 4, Adams Central 4
Strength of schedule ranking (according to Sagarin): Whiting 317, Adams Central 207
Opponents' records: Whiting 219-256, Adams Central 233-211
Sagarin ranking: Whiting 393, Adams Central 350
Calpreps.com ranking: Whiting 414, Adams Central 380
Calpreps.com predicted final score (neutral court): Adams Central 58, Whiting 45
Whiting had a worse margin of defeat against a weaker schedule, it appears. On the other hand, they are a Class A school, while Adams Central is a 2A school and should theoretically play a stronger schedule. But the Oilers played only 5 games against schools in its class, while the remainder of its games were against larger schools. Adams Central, meanwhile, played 4 games against Class A competition.
Whiting lost its 5 games to Class A competition by 19.8 ppg, while Adams Central lost its 4 games to Class A opponents by 14 ppg.
Whiting played 8 games against Class 2A schools (Adams Central's class), and lost those by an average of 25.6 ppg. When Adams Central played in its own class, it lost those 8 games by 12.5 ppg.
Whichever way you slice it, it appears that Whiting has the lower hand in every category, save for one:
Both teams played one game against an out-of-state opponent. Whiting lost by only a basket to Grant Park, IL, while Adams Central was dealt its worst defeat of the season, a 33-point loss to Parkway, OH.
Despite the fact that the Oilers represented their state a lot better than the Jets did, my provincial loyalty isn't enough to pull them from the top of the list, unfortunately. The Whiting Oilers – your 2007-08 Winless Watch Boys Team of the Year!
Friday, March 7, 2008
Sectional review:
I said:
WW says to look for Seeger to win its first sectional championship since 1978.
Uhhhh ... close. Seeger fell on Saturday night to Carroll (Flora) - a school that, with the win, won its first sectional championship, so congrats to them! - but the Patriots' drought shall extend to at least 31 years. (And 18-3 looked so much better than 9-12!)
The longest drought broken on Saturday didn't belong to any of the teams with the 25+ year droughts I wrote about last week. Instead, it appears that the longest dry spell snapped was 23 years, by two teams: Daleville and Culver, who both won their first sectional crowns since 1985 last Saturday night.
On the positive side of the ledger, I also indicated that Indianapolis Lutheran was a virtual lock to win its first sectional. And they made it happen, downing University in a sectional final delayed two days due to University's girls playing in their state championship game on Saturday morning. Congrats to the Saints!
Another team I had stated that had a good chance to win its first sectional was Borden, and they succeeded by beating South Central (Elizabeth) on Saturday. While they play a solid Barr-Reeve team in the regional opener this week, don't put it past the Braves to advance; they did, after all, put the only blemish on #2 Orleans' otherwise-perfect record this season.
With the exception of the previously-mentioned Carroll (Flora), all of the other squads who were still alive for their first sectional championship last Saturday night lost. Winless Watch called the Covenant Christian defeat at the hands of Tri-West last week (though I believe Covenant was still ahead in the game's final seconds), while New Harmony, Churubusco and Fort Wayne Canterbury also suffered defeats to put an end to their seasons.
This leaves a grand total of 21 "legacy schools" who have yet to win a boys basketball sectional.
Last week, I listed five other teams aside from Seeger who had a chance to break their long sectional droughts. Morton Memorial, Wabash, Elwood, Union (Modoc) and Union County all fell in their respective sectional championship games.
Also last week, I listed all of the teams who, despite winning 5 or fewer games during the regular season, were still alive for a sectional championship - Elkhart Central, Loogootee, Tri-Central, New Prairie, Fort Wayne Elmhurst, Vincennes Lincoln, Wabash, North White, Springs Valley and New Harmony. They all lost, and the Winless Watch kiss of death is alive and well. Insert various levels of sadness and disgust here.
For what it's worth, there are still a handful of teams alive in the tournament who still have overall losing records on the season despite having won two or three games in their sectionals. The best story of all of these is probably Class 4A's 11-13 Terre Haute North. They are coached by Jim Jones, whose biggest claim to fame is that he coached Larry Bird in high school.
You probably couldn't have found a team with less momentum entering sectionals than the Patriots, having lost 9 of their last 11 regular-season games (including a weather-induced forfeit to Lawrence North on the season's final weekend that school officials refused to make up on Saturday or Monday). But Jones announced before sectional week that this season, his 45th on the bench, would be his last; duly inspired, his Patriots reeled off three victories in the sectional against teams with a combined record of 40-21 (including a 17-3 Plainfield team that many had pegged as the prohibitive favorite of the sectional).
Three other teams, all in Class 2A, enter the regional round with sub-.500 records: Garrett's 10-12 Railroaders, first-time sectional champs Carroll (Flora), also at 10-12, and Tri-West (11-12). And a handful of other squads still alive in the tourney raised their records above .500 during sectional week - 12-11 Peru, 12-10 Rushville, 12-11 Culver, and 13-10 Kankakee Valley.
I'll check in once more before season's end with the final Winless Watch rankings and the Winless Watch Boys' Team of the Year.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Simulated 2007-08 IHSAA Boys Single-Class Basketball Tournament
I had discovered the game predictor at calpreps.com - an invaluable resource that's going away, unfortunately - and had an idea to take Jeff Sagarin's ideal single-class sectional lineup, perform a random draw and then simulate an entire IHSAA single-class tournament, the kind that we had in the old days before the state athletic commission decided it would be better for there to be four winners at the end of the season instead of one. You can find the results of the 2005-06 tournament here.
Since, as I mentioned earlier, calpreps.com's high school basketball power rankings and matchup predictor are going away, this will probably be the last one of these that I do. Which is too bad - it'd be nice to either hand calpreps.com a big check* and say "keep doing this, please," or hand calpreps.com a big check* and say, "I'd like to purchase one simulator, please." But they're focusing solely on high school football after this school year is up, and bully for them, I guess.
* - or a small check
Anyway, to the task at hand:
I took Sagarin's single-class sectional breakout from 2003, which took all 384 IHSAA teams and put them into 64 geographically "correct" sectionals so that no team would have to travel more than 20 or 25 miles to play in a sectional. The math was great - 6 teams per sectional, 64 sectionals; it worked out perfectly.
This year, however, 398 teams are taking part in the postseason tournament, so I had to make a best guess at the 14 additional teams that have joined the IHSAA since then. This made for a handful of 7- and 8-team sectionals (the sectional at Noblesville threatened to be a 9-team sectional, but I moved one of the new teams - University - to another Indianapolis-area sectional). Also, there was one 5-team sectional, in Gary - Sagarin's 2003 lineup included Gary Mann, which has since closed; if Bowman Academy were eligible for the state tournament this year, they would have replaced Gary Mann, but there are no other new schools in the area.
This time, unlike the 2005-06 simulated tournament, I put a little more effort into making some geographically correct post-sectional rounds, actually examining a map and putting the sectional winners into regionals and semistates that made a little more sense than my previous effort. If I put your school into a regional or semistate that was, in your view, ridiculous, I'm sorry - but likely, the end result would have been the same.
The game predictor does not take into account injuries, Cinderella stories or any other intangible stuff that makes single-elimination tournaments such a joy to watch (see also: March Madness). It provides cold, hard scores based on cold, hard results to that point in the season. And, as you might expect, the results are a little top-heavy - only 3 Class A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals; only 10 Class 2A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals. And the Final Four ended up being four Class 4A schools, as you might expect.
The calpreps.com predictor provides predicted results for three scenarios: Team A's home court, Team B's home court, and neutral site. Regardless of tournament site (which I selected based on the best I could remember about the old single-class sectionals), I selected the "neutral site" scenario. During the two-game single-day tournaments that would take place at the regional and semistate rounds, I had considered making the first game winner the home team in the evening, since they would be more rested and have maybe a slight edge, but for consistency's sake, I stuck with the neutral-site results.
Without further ado, here are the results this year's simulated Indiana high school single-class boys' basketball tournament. Enjoy, and wonder "what if?".
Fremont 72, Howe Military 44
Elkhart
Jimtown 55,
Jimtown 43,
Penn 58,
Penn 43, Jimtown 41 (final)
LaPorte 75,
South Central (Union Mills) 59, New Prairie 53
LaPorte 66, South Central (Union Mills) 52
SB Adams 65,
SB St. Joseph's 63, SB Riley 60
SB St. Joseph's 61, SB Adams 53
SB Clay 64, SB Washington 61
SB St. Joseph's 58, SB Clay 57 (final)
Gary Wirt 68,
Hobart 63, Gary Roosevelt 62
Gary Wirt 64,
Gary Wirt 63, Hobart 55 (final)
Westview 59,
Wawasee 54,
Westview 67, Wawasee 54
Northridge 61,
Westview 59, Northridge 57 (final)
Calumet 71,
Gary West 66, Hammond Morton 35
Gary West 65,
Gary West 51,
Chesterton 75,
Chesterton 59,
Andrean 69,
NorthWood 64, LaVille 38
Triton 53,
Triton 53, NorthWood 50
East Noble
DeKalb 51, Eastside 34
Leo 64,
DeKalb 52, Leo 42
East Noble 53, Garrett 43
DeKalb 44, East Noble 38 (final)
Whitko 57, West Noble 51
Boone Grove 52,
Boone Grove 62,
Boone Grove 60,
Knox
Knox 50, West Central 43
North Judson 51, LaCrosse 47
Knox 57, North Judson 47
Winamac 57, Oregon-Davis 55
Knox 66, Winamac 45 (final)
Fort Wayne Dwenger 63, Fort Wayne Northrop 49 (final)
Heritage
Harding 70, Woodlan 44
Harding 70,
Harding 74, Fort Wayne Blackhawk 61 (final)
Fort Wayne II
Fort Wayne South 63, Fort Wayne Wayne 50 (final)
Southwood 63,
Southwood 68, Huntington North 59
Tri-County 51,
Frontier 63, North White 47
Tri-County 56, Frontier 48
Lewis Cass 50, Maconaquah 44
Lewis Cass 51,
Bellmont
Bluffton 53, Norwell 39
Southern Wells 57,
Bluffton 64, Southern Wells 43
Bellmont 63,
Bluffton 60, Bellmont 49 (final)
Marion 76, Blackford 37
Oak Hill 75, Eastbrook 52
Mississinewa 65, Lakeview Christian 52
Marion 73, Mississinewa 45 (final)
McCutcheon 58, Harrison (
Lafayette Jeff 69, McCutcheon 55 (final)
Tipton 67, Tri-Central 41
Tipton 54,
Northwestern 68,
Tipton 57, Northwestern 56 (final)
Western 57, Carroll (Flora) 48
Western 56,
Anderson Highland 62, Madison-Grant 56
Frankton 55,
Anderson Highland 59, Frankton 55
Wes-Del 57, Elwood 54
Anderson Highland 62, Wes-Del 55 (final)
Seeger 63,
Seeger 62,
Fountain Central 58, North Vermillion 49
Seeger 66, Fountain Central 48 (final)
Wapahani 49,
Delta 45,
Cowan 53,
Muncie Central 69, Cowan 41 (final)
Noblesville
Guerin Catholic 65,
Noblesville 58,
Fishers 75,
Noblesville 60, Guerin Catholic 54
Crawfordsville
Western Boone 60,
Crawfordsville 60, Southmont 58
Western Boone 65, Crawfordsville 55
Lapel 62, Shenandoah 47
Mount
Anderson 56, Pendleton Heights 51 (final)
New Castle 70, Cambridge City Lincoln 40 (final)
Broad Ripple
Indianpolis Pike 78,
North Central (
Zionsville 50,
Indianapolis Pike 71,
North Central (
North Central (
Indianpolis Chatard 62,
Indianapolis Cathedral 65, Indianapolis Chatard 54 (final)
Ben Davis
Ben Davis 66,
Brownsburg 66,
Brownsburg 65, Ben Davis 56
Brownsburg 56, Indianapolis Northwest 54 (final)
Rushville
Rushville 73, Knightstown 60
Eastern Hancock 67, Morton Memorial 49
Rushville 70, Eastern Hancock 63
Greenfield-Central 66,
Rushville 76, Greenfield-Central 63 (final)
Southport 66,
Southport 62,
Northview
Northview 70, Riverton Parke 40
Terre Haute North 49, Northview 48 (final)
Franklin Central
New
Warren Central 61, Beech Grove 53
Franklin Central 69, University 37
Warren Central 56,
New
Warren Central 63, New Palestine 47 (final)
Greencastle 62, South Putnam 44
Cloverdale 58, Cascade 56
Greencastle 60, Cloverdale 53
Mooresville
Mooresville 63,
Center Grove 55, Whiteland 44
Perry Meridian 66,
Perry Meridian 68,
Center Grove 76, Indian Creek 53
Perry Meridian 63, Center Grove 61 (final)
Hauser 76, Southwestern (Shelbyville) 41
Waldron 60, Edinburgh 47
Hauser 72, Waldron 54
Hauser 63, Columbus North 58 (final)
Jac-Cen-Del 70,
Batesville 62,
Batesville 67, Jac-Cen-Del 57
Batesville 66,
Sullivan
Sullivan 69,
Shakamak 65,
Terre Haute South 74,
Edgewood 77,
East Central
East Central 63, South Ripley 42
Rising Sun 63,
East Central 60, Rising Sun 42
Lawrenceburg 56,
East Central 58, Lawrenceburg 52 (final)
North Daviess 50, Bloomfield 39 (final)
Brownstown Central 70, Crothersville 42
Columbus East 61, Jennings County 54 (final)
Southwestern (Hanover) 60, New Washington 49
South
Washington 74, South Knox 51
Washington 68, Vincennes Lincoln 47 (final)
Mitchell 52,
Paoli 66,
Scottsburg
Eastern (
Borden 62, Scottsburg 61
Jasper
Northeast Dubois 67, Shoals 36
Barr-Reeve 55, Loogootee 39
Barr-Reeve 53, Northeast Dubois 50
Jasper 55, Southridge 46
Jasper 56, Barr-Reeve 52 (final)
Silver Creek 65,
Tecumseh 53, Wood Memorial 44
Gibson Southern 51, Boonville 50
Tecumseh 49, Gibson Southern 40
Floyd Central
Floyd Central 58, Corydon Central 54
Lanesville 59,
Lanesville 57, Floyd Central 54
Lanesville 60, Crawford County 56 (final)
Evansville Reitz 56, Evansville Central 51 (final)
Heritage Hills
Heritage Hills 60, Perry Central 57
South Spencer 66, Cannelton 46
Evansville Memorial 71, Evansville Bosse 60 (final)
Round 2: Regionals (64 teams, 16 sites)
Knox 57, Boone Grove 54
Chesterton 69,
Chesterton 71, Knox 51 (final)
Westview 56,
Gary West 55, Gary Wirt 49
East Chicago Central 69, Gary West 60 (final)
Lafayette Jeff 71,
Perry Meridian 67, Hauser 65
Bloomington South 62, Perry Meridian 52 (final)
Franklin Central
Batesville 58, East Central 50
Warren Central 74, Rushville 56
Warren Central 60, Batesville 56 (final)
Tipton 62,
North Central (
Indianapolis Cathedral 68, North Central (
Terre Haute South 59, Terre Haute North 46 (final)
Evansville Memorial 67, Evansville Reitz 63 (final)
New Castle 56,
East Noble
Harding 66,
Harding 62, Fort Wayne Dwenger 61 (final)
Fort Wayne South 59,
Marion 57, Muncie Central 50 (final)
Round 3: Semistates (16 teams, 4 sites)
Chesterton 59,
Lafayette Jeff 73, Chesterton 68 (final)
Harding 58,
Marion 59, Fort
Marion 63, Harding 58 (final)
Final Four (Conseco Fieldhouse,