Simulated 2007-08 IHSAA Boys Single-Class Basketball Tournament

A couple of years ago, I undertook probably one of the most time-consuming, yet satisfying tasks I've ever done since I started blogging.

I had discovered the game predictor at calpreps.com - an invaluable resource that's going away, unfortunately - and had an idea to take Jeff Sagarin's ideal single-class sectional lineup, perform a random draw and then simulate an entire IHSAA single-class tournament, the kind that we had in the old days before the state athletic commission decided it would be better for there to be four winners at the end of the season instead of one. You can find the results of the 2005-06 tournament here.

Since, as I mentioned earlier, calpreps.com's high school basketball power rankings and matchup predictor are going away, this will probably be the last one of these that I do. Which is too bad - it'd be nice to either hand calpreps.com a big check* and say "keep doing this, please," or hand calpreps.com a big check* and say, "I'd like to purchase one simulator, please." But they're focusing solely on high school football after this school year is up, and bully for them, I guess.

* - or a small check

Anyway, to the task at hand:

I took Sagarin's single-class sectional breakout from 2003, which took all 384 IHSAA teams and put them into 64 geographically "correct" sectionals so that no team would have to travel more than 20 or 25 miles to play in a sectional. The math was great - 6 teams per sectional, 64 sectionals; it worked out perfectly.

This year, however, 398 teams are taking part in the postseason tournament, so I had to make a best guess at the 14 additional teams that have joined the IHSAA since then. This made for a handful of 7- and 8-team sectionals (the sectional at Noblesville threatened to be a 9-team sectional, but I moved one of the new teams - University - to another Indianapolis-area sectional). Also, there was one 5-team sectional, in Gary - Sagarin's 2003 lineup included Gary Mann, which has since closed; if Bowman Academy were eligible for the state tournament this year, they would have replaced Gary Mann, but there are no other new schools in the area.

This time, unlike the 2005-06 simulated tournament, I put a little more effort into making some geographically correct post-sectional rounds, actually examining a map and putting the sectional winners into regionals and semistates that made a little more sense than my previous effort. If I put your school into a regional or semistate that was, in your view, ridiculous, I'm sorry - but likely, the end result would have been the same.

The game predictor does not take into account injuries, Cinderella stories or any other intangible stuff that makes single-elimination tournaments such a joy to watch (see also: March Madness). It provides cold, hard scores based on cold, hard results to that point in the season. And, as you might expect, the results are a little top-heavy - only 3 Class A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals; only 10 Class 2A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals. And the Final Four ended up being four Class 4A schools, as you might expect.

The calpreps.com predictor provides predicted results for three scenarios: Team A's home court, Team B's home court, and neutral site. Regardless of tournament site (which I selected based on the best I could remember about the old single-class sectionals), I selected the "neutral site" scenario. During the two-game single-day tournaments that would take place at the regional and semistate rounds, I had considered making the first game winner the home team in the evening, since they would be more rested and have maybe a slight edge, but for consistency's sake, I stuck with the neutral-site results.

Without further ado, here are the results this year's simulated Indiana high school single-class boys' basketball tournament. Enjoy, and wonder "what if?".

Round 1: Sectionals (398 teams, 64 sites)

Angola
Lakeland 65, Prairie Heights 45
Fremont 72, Howe Military 44
Lakeland 59, Fremont 49
Angola 59, Hamilton 40
Lakeland 57, Angola 52 (final)

East Chicago
Hammond Noll 68, Hammond Gavit 53
East Chicago 80, Hammond Clark 54
East Chicago 83, Hammond Noll 66
Hammond 76, Whiting 42
East Chicago 83, Hammond 61 (final)

Elkhart
Elkhart Memorial 62, Concord 53
Mishawaka 58, Elkhart Central 53
Jimtown 55, Elkhart Christian 39
Jimtown 43, Mishawaka 30
Penn 58, Elkhart Memorial 51
Penn 43, Jimtown 41 (final)

Michigan City
LaPorte 75, Michigan City Marquette 57
South Central (Union Mills) 59, New Prairie 53
LaPorte 66, South Central (Union Mills) 52
Michigan City 68, Westville 37
Michigan City 66, LaPorte 63 (final)

South Bend
SB Adams 65, Mishawaka Marian 47
SB St. Joseph's 63, SB Riley 60
SB St. Joseph's 61, SB Adams 53
SB Clay 64, SB Washington 61
SB St. Joseph's 58, SB Clay 57 (final)

Hobart
Gary Wirt 68, River Forest 34
Hobart 63, Gary Roosevelt 62
Gary Wirt 64, Lake Station 43
Gary Wirt 63, Hobart 55 (final)

Goshen
Westview 59, Goshen 50
Wawasee 54, Fairfield 53
Westview 67, Wawasee 54
Northridge 61, Bethany Christian 42
Westview 59, Northridge 57 (final)

Gary
Calumet 71, Griffith 58
Gary West 66, Hammond Morton 35
Gary West 65, Calumet 54
Munster 58, Highland 36
Gary West 51, Munster 49 (final)

Valparaiso
Valparaiso 45, Wheeler 40
Morgan Township 52, Portage 51
Valparaiso 42, Morgan Township 38
Chesterton 75, Washington Township 28
Chesterton 59, Valparaiso 43 (final)

Merrillville
Andrean 69, Hanover Central 68
Crown Point 64, Gary Wallace 57
Crown Point 75, Andrean 49
Merrillville 54, Lake Central 45
Merrillville 53, Crown Point 52 (final)

Plymouth
NorthWood 64, LaVille 38
Triton 53, Bremen 42
Triton 53, NorthWood 50
Plymouth 64, John Glenn 45
Plymouth 52, Triton 46 (final)

East Noble
DeKalb 51, Eastside 34
Leo 64, Lakewood Park 56
DeKalb 52, Leo 42
East Noble 53, Garrett 43
DeKalb 44, East Noble 38 (final)

Warsaw
Columbia City 54, Central Noble 35
Whitko 57, West Noble 51
Columbia City 50, Whitko 42
Warsaw 73, Churubusco 37
Warsaw 54, Columbia City 43 (final)

Lowell
Boone Grove 52, Lowell 50
Kankakee Valley 66, Kouts 64
Boone Grove 62, Kankakee Valley 61
Hebron 65, North Newton 49
Boone Grove 60, Hebron 53 (final)

Knox
Knox 50, West Central 43
North Judson 51, LaCrosse 47
Knox 57, North Judson 47
Winamac 57, Oregon-Davis 55
Knox 66, Winamac 45 (final)

Tippecanoe Valley
Rochester 66, Culver Military 31
Tippecanoe Valley 61, Culver 45
Rochester 59, Tippecanoe Valley 58
Argos 51, Caston 33
Rochester 54, Argos 44 (final)

Fort Wayne I
Fort Wayne Dwenger 67, Fort Wayne North 56
Fort Wayne Snider 68, Fort Wayne Concordia 56
Fort Wayne Dwenger 63, Fort Wayne Snider 60
Fort Wayne Northrop 48, Carroll (Fort Wayne) 47
Fort Wayne Dwenger 63, Fort Wayne Northrop 49 (final)

Heritage
New Haven 52, Heritage 50
Harding 70, Woodlan 44
Harding 70, New Haven 50
Fort Wayne Blackhawk 85, Fort Wayne Keystone 61
Harding 74, Fort Wayne Blackhawk 61 (final)

Fort Wayne II
Fort Wayne Wayne 60, Fort Wayne Elmhurst 53
Homestead 67, Fort Wayne Canterbury 53
Fort Wayne Wayne 57, Homestead 56
Fort Wayne South 63, Fort Wayne Luers 62
Fort Wayne South 63, Fort Wayne Wayne 50 (final)

Huntington
Huntington North 80, White's 44
Southwood 63, Wabash 54
Southwood 68, Huntington North 59
Northfield 56, Manchester 46
Northfield 54, Southwood 52 (final)

Twin Lakes
Tri-County 51, Rensselaer Central 48
Frontier 63, North White 47
Tri-County 56, Frontier 48
Twin Lakes 57, South Newton 52
Twin Lakes 53, Tri-County 48 (final)

Logansport
Logansport 61, Pioneer 51
Lewis Cass 50, Maconaquah 44
Lewis Cass 51, Logansport 44
North Miami 56, Peru 53
North Miami 48, Lewis Cass 45 (final)

Bellmont
Bluffton 53, Norwell 39
Southern Wells 57, Adams Central 48
Bluffton 64, Southern Wells 43
Bellmont 63, South Adams 58
Bluffton 60, Bellmont 49 (final)

Marion
Marion 76, Blackford 37
Oak Hill 75, Eastbrook 52
Marion 70, Oak Hill 57
Mississinewa 65, Lakeview Christian 52
Marion 73, Mississinewa 45 (final)

Lafayette
Lafayette Jeff 80, Delphi 46
Lafayette Central Catholic 63, West Lafayette 49
Lafayette Jeff 73, Lafayette Central Catholic 65
McCutcheon 58, Harrison (W. Lafayette) 42
Lafayette Jeff 69, McCutcheon 55 (final)

Kokomo
Tipton 67, Tri-Central 41
Kokomo 63, Eastern (Greentown) 42
Tipton 54, Kokomo 52
Northwestern 68, Taylor 56
Tipton 57, Northwestern 56 (final)

Frankfort
Clinton Central 54, Clinton Prairie 51
Western 57, Carroll (Flora) 48
Western 56, Clinton Central 50
Frankfort 74, Rossville 63
Frankfort 59, Western 52 (final)

Alexandria
Anderson Highland 62, Madison-Grant 56
Frankton 55, Alexandria 46
Anderson Highland 59, Frankton 55
Wes-Del 57, Elwood 54
Anderson Highland 62, Wes-Del 55 (final)

Benton Central
Seeger 63, Covington 44
Benton Central 60, Attica 47
Seeger 62, Benton Central 56
Fountain Central 58, North Vermillion 49
Seeger 66, Fountain Central 48 (final)

Jay County
Jay County 65, Monroe Central 50
Winchester 77, Randolph Southern 37
Winchester 54, Jay County 52
Wapahani 49, Union City 41
Winchester 59, Wapahani 46 (final)

Muncie
Delta 45, Yorktown 44
Muncie Central 56, Muncie South 51
Muncie Central 49, Delta 47
Cowan 53, Muncie Burris 46
Muncie Central 69, Cowan 41 (final)

Noblesville
Guerin Catholic 65, Hamilton Heights 62
Noblesville 58, Westfield 42
Fishers 75, Sheridan 44
Carmel 72, Hamilton Southeastern 59
Noblesville 60, Guerin Catholic 54
Carmel 74, Fishers 52
Carmel 66, Noblesville 49 (final)

Crawfordsville
Western Boone 60, Lebanon 50
Crawfordsville 60, Southmont 58
Western Boone 65, Crawfordsville 55
North Montgomery 70, Tri-West 55
North Montgomery 67, Western Boone 61 (final)

Anderson
Lapel 62, Shenandoah 47
Mount Vernon (Fortville) 59, Liberty Christian 46
Pendleton Heights 64, Daleville 48
Pendleton Heights 51, Mount Vernon (Fortville) 43
Anderson 65, Lapel 51
Anderson 56, Pendleton Heights 51 (final)

New Castle
Union (Modoc)56, Tri 49
New Castle 67, Blue River 44
New Castle 72, Union (Modoc) 31
Cambridge City Lincoln 70, Hagerstown 60
New Castle 70, Cambridge City Lincoln 40 (final)

Broad Ripple
Indianapolis Broad Ripple 67, Park Tudor 57
Indianpolis Pike 78, Indianapolis Tindley 37
North Central (Indianapolis) 77, Indianapolis Howe 72
Zionsville 50, Indianapolis Brebeuf 46
Indianapolis Pike 71, Indianapolis Broad Ripple 66
North Central (Indianapolis) 70, Zionsville 54
North Central (Indianapolis) 71, Indianpolis Pike 64

Lawrence North
Indianapolis Chatard 81, Indianapolis International 34
Lawrence North 69, Heritage Christian 45
Indianapolis Cathedral 73, Lawrence Central 45
Indianapolis Cathedral 59, Lawrence North 58
Indianpolis Chatard 62, Indianapolis Arlington 54
Indianapolis Cathedral 65, Indianapolis Chatard 54 (final)

Ben Davis
Indianapolis Northwest 65, Covenant Christian 51
Ben Davis 66, Indianapolis Ritter 63
Brownsburg 66, Speedway 38
Brownsburg 65, Ben Davis 56
Indianapolis Northwest 77, Bethesda Christian 43
Brownsburg 56, Indianapolis Northwest 54 (final)

Rushville
Rushville 73, Knightstown 60
Eastern Hancock 67, Morton Memorial 49
Rushville 70, Eastern Hancock 63
Greenfield-Central 66, Morristown 56
Rushville 76, Greenfield-Central 63 (final)

Indianapolis Tech
Indianapolis Roncalli 61, Indianapolis Tech 48
Indianapolis Manual 60, Indianapolis Scecina 47
Southport 66, Indianapolis Washington 51
Southport 62, Indianapolis Manual 54
Indianapolis Roncalli 63, Indiana Deaf 40
Southport 50, Indianapolis Roncalli 46 (final)

Richmond
Richmond 63, Union County 44
Franklin County 60, Seton Catholic 28
Centerville 58, Northeastern 50
Centerville 51, Franklin County 50
Richmond 62, Connersville 51
Richmond 61, Centerville 45 (final)

Northview
Turkey Run 51, South Vermillion 45
Terre Haute North 53, Rockville 50
Terre Haute North 61, Turkey Run 36
Northview 70, Riverton Parke 40
Terre Haute North 49, Northview 48 (final)

Franklin Central
New Palestine 60, Triton Central 53
Warren Central 61, Beech Grove 53
Franklin Central 69, University 37
Warren Central 56, Franklin Central 50
New Palestine 56, Indianapolis Lutheran 53
Warren Central 63, New Palestine 47 (final)

Danville
Greencastle 62, South Putnam 44
Cloverdale 58, Cascade 56
Greencastle 60, Cloverdale 53
Danville 77, North Putnam 37
Danville 63, Greencastle 50 (final)

Mooresville
Mooresville 63, Decatur Central 59
Plainfield 75, Avon 53
Plainfield 70, Mooresville 62
Monrovia 79, Eminence 55
Plainfield 82, Monrovia 59 (final)

Franklin
Center Grove 55, Whiteland 44
Perry Meridian 66, Franklin 51
Greenwood 75, Greenwood Christian 35
Perry Meridian 68, Greenwood 48
Center Grove 76, Indian Creek 53
Perry Meridian 63, Center Grove 61 (final)

Columbus North
Hauser 76, Southwestern (Shelbyville) 41
Waldron 60, Edinburgh 47
Hauser 72, Waldron 54
Columbus North 56, Shelbyville 50
Hauser 63, Columbus North 58 (final)

Greensburg
Jac-Cen-Del 70, South Decatur 52
Batesville 62, North Decatur 43
Batesville 67, Jac-Cen-Del 57
Greensburg 73, Oldenburg Academy 48
Batesville 66, Greensburg 51 (final)

Sullivan
Sullivan 69, Terre Haute Holy Cross 40
Terre Haute South 75, North Central (Farmersburg) 44
Shakamak 65, Clay City 55
West Vigo 68, Sullivan 50
Terre Haute South 75, Shakamak 52
Terre Haute South 74, West Vigo 54 (final)

Bloomington South
Bloomington South 63, Martinsville 43
Bloomington North 70, Owen Valley 58
Bloomington South 62, Bloomington North 49
Edgewood 77, Brown County 50
Bloomington South 62, Edgewood 53

East Central
East Central 63, South Ripley 42
Rising Sun 63, Milan 50
East Central 60, Rising Sun 42
Lawrenceburg 56, South Dearborn 44
East Central 58, Lawrenceburg 52 (final)

White River Valley
White River Valley 51, Eastern Greene 38
Bloomfield 61, Union (Dugger) 38
Bloomfield 42, White River Valley 39
North Daviess 69, Linton-Stockton 40
North Daviess 50, Bloomfield 39 (final)

Seymour
Jennings County 78, Medora 32
Brownstown Central 70, Crothersville 42
Columbus East 66, Seymour 55
Jennings County 69, Trinity Lutheran 43
Columbus East 62, Brownstown Central 48
Columbus East 61, Jennings County 54 (final)

Madison
Southwestern (Hanover) 60, New Washington 49
Switzerland County 50, Shawe Memorial 41
Switzerland County 58, Southwestern (Hanover) 54
Charlestown 62, Madison 55
Charlestown 60, Switzerland County 50 (final)

Washington
South Knox 73, Washington Catholic 53
Washington 69, Vincennes Rivet 47
Washington 74, South Knox 51
Vincennes Lincoln 59, North Knox 41
Washington 68, Vincennes Lincoln 47 (final)

Bedford
Mitchell 52, Springs Valley 43
Orleans 55, BNL 52
Orleans 58, Mitchell 43
Paoli 66, West Washington 53
Orleans 57, Paoli 54 (final)

Scottsburg
Eastern (Pekin) 68, Austin 52
Salem 69, Henryville 47
Salem 67, Eastern (Pekin) 61
Borden 62, Scottsburg 61
Salem 64, Borden 55 (final)

Jasper
Northeast Dubois 67, Shoals 36
Barr-Reeve 55, Loogootee 39
Barr-Reeve 53, Northeast Dubois 50
Jasper 55, Southridge 46
Jasper 56, Barr-Reeve 52 (final)

New Albany
Providence 52, Clarksville 41
Silver Creek 65, Christian Academy 58
New Albany 84, Rock Creek Christian 44
New Albany 78, Silver Creek 52
Jeffersonville 50, Providence 45
New Albany 70, Jeffersonville 51 (final)

Princeton
Tecumseh 53, Wood Memorial 44
Gibson Southern 51, Boonville 50
Tecumseh 49, Gibson Southern 40
Princeton 66, Pike Central 48
Princeton 61, Tecumseh 55 (final)

Floyd Central
Floyd Central 58, Corydon Central 54
Lanesville 59, North Harrison 50
Lanesville 57, Floyd Central 54
Crawford County 64, South Central (Elizabeth) 58
Lanesville 60, Crawford County 56 (final)

Evansville I
Evansville Central 54, North Posey 36
Mount Vernon 70, New Harmony 33
Evansville Central 56, Mount Vernon 44
Evansville Reitz 63, Evansville Mater Dei 54
Evansville Reitz 56, Evansville Central 51 (final)

Heritage Hills
Forest Park 64, Tell City 63
Heritage Hills 60, Perry Central 57
Forest Park 62, Heritage Hills 57
South Spencer 66, Cannelton 46
Forest Park 58, South Spencer 50 (final)

Evansville II
Evansville Harrison 75, Evansville North 65
Evansville Memorial 71, Castle 69
Evansville Memorial 72, Evansville Harrison 63
Evansville Bosse 78, Evansville Day 28
Evansville Memorial 71, Evansville Bosse 60 (final)

Round 2: Regionals (64 teams, 16 sites)

Valparaiso
Knox 57, Boone Grove 54
Chesterton 69, Michigan City 57
Chesterton 71, Knox 51 (final)

South Bend
Westview 56, Plymouth 52
Plymouth 51, South Bend St. Joseph's 50
Plymouth 55, Westview 54 (final)

Merrillville
East Chicago Central 70, Merrillville 63
Gary West 55, Gary Wirt 49
East Chicago Central 69, Gary West 60 (final)

Lafayette
North Miami 58, Seeger 54
Lafayette Jeff 76, Twin Lakes 55
Lafayette Jeff 71, North Miami 53 (final)

Seymour
Bloomington South 58, Columbus East 49
Perry Meridian 67, Hauser 65
Bloomington South 62, Perry Meridian 52 (final)

Franklin Central
Batesville 58, East Central 50
Warren Central 74, Rushville 56
Warren Central 60, Batesville 56 (final)

Frankfort
Carmel 75, Frankfort 52
Tipton 62, North Montgomery 57
Carmel 67, Tipton 51 (final)

Lawrence North
Indianapolis Cathedral 58, Brownsburg 51
North Central (Indianapolis) 66, Southport 60
Indianapolis Cathedral 68, North Central (Indianapolis) 63 (final)

Terre Haute
Terre Haute South 68, Plainfield 67
Terre Haute North 52, Danville 51
Terre Haute South 59, Terre Haute North 46 (final)

Jeffersonville
Salem 64, Lanesville 52
New Albany 70, Charlestown 52
New Albany 72, Salem 54 (final)

Washington
Orleans 53, North Daviess 49
Washington 67, Jasper 52
Washington 59, Orleans 48 (final)

Evansville
Evansville Reitz 65, Princeton 57
Evansville Memorial 77, Forest Park 57
Evansville Memorial 67, Evansville Reitz 63 (final)

New Castle
Richmond 61, Anderson Highland 56
New Castle 55, Anderson 54
New Castle 56, Richmond 49 (final)

East Noble
Harding 66, Lakeland 54
Fort Wayne Dwenger 53, DeKalb 43
Harding 62, Fort Wayne Dwenger 61 (final)

Fort Wayne
Winchester 55, Bluffton 51
Fort Wayne South 61, Warsaw 55
Fort Wayne South 59, Winchester 54 (final)

Marion
Muncie Central 56, Rochester 50
Marion 62, Northfield 42
Marion 57, Muncie Central 50 (final)

Round 3: Semistates (16 teams, 4 sites)

Lafayette
Chesterton 59, Plymouth 55
Lafayette Jeff 77, East Chicago Central 76
Lafayette Jeff 73, Chesterton 68 (final)

Indianapolis
Bloomington South 54, Warren Central 51
Carmel 66, Indianapolis Cathedral 62
Carmel 61, Bloomington South 57 (final)

Evansville
New Albany 67, Terre Haute South 60
Evansville Memorial 66, Washington 64
New Albany 70, Evansville Memorial 66 (final)

Fort Wayne
Harding 58, New Castle 57
Marion 59, Fort Wayne South 54
Marion 63, Harding 58 (final)

Final Four (Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)

Carmel 73, Lafayette Jeff 66
New Albany 63, Marion 58
Carmel 66, New Albany 65 (final)